Is the Current Steam Sale Actually a Good Deal? Here’s How to Tell

Every time a Steam sale rolls around, the same thing happens. The store fills up with red banners. Wishlists light up with little green percentages. Group chats start firing off screenshots of "75% OFF" tags. And without fail, somebody buys a game for $15 that was $12 two weeks ago.

I've been tracking PC game prices for years, and the single most useful thing I've learned is that a discount percentage tells you almost nothing on its own. A 75% off sticker can be a genuinely incredible deal or a slightly worse price than last month — and the storefront looks identical in both cases. So here's the framework I actually use, in the order I check things, when I'm deciding whether to pull the trigger on a sale.

1. Compare the price to the all-time low, not the MSRP

This is the one habit that will change your buying more than anything else. MSRP is essentially a marketing number. Publishers set the "regular" price as high as possible so the discount-from-MSRP looks dramatic. What you actually want to know is: what's the cheapest this game has ever been sold for, and how close are we to that number right now?

A game at "75% off" that's still $3 above its historical low is, by definition, not a particularly good deal. A game at "50% off" that's matching its all-time low absolutely is. The discount label is a distraction. The distance to floor is the signal.

This is the whole reason ATLGames exists — every deal page on this site shows you the historical floor and how close the current price is to it. But you don't need this site to do it. SteamDB and IsThereAnyDeal both publish historical pricing. Bookmark one of them and check before every purchase.

2. Look at the price history shape, not just the number

The shape of a game's price chart over the last two years tells you something the current price doesn't: how often does this game go on sale, and how deep do the discounts usually go?

A game that hits its all-time low approximately every three months is fundamentally different from a game that has only hit its all-time low twice in two years. If you're looking at the first kind, there's no urgency — wait for the next seasonal sale. If you're looking at the second kind, and it's currently at or near that rare low, you're looking at a real opportunity that might not come back for six months or more.

Specifically, here's what to look for:

• Frequent shallow dips (10–30%): Almost always not worth buying yet. Wait for a seasonal sale.
• Quarterly deep dips (50–75%): Buy on a deep dip; skip the shallow ones in between.
• Rare, very deep dips (80%+) that only happen once or twice a year: These are the ones worth jumping on immediately when they appear. They typically align with the four major seasonal sales.
• A flat line followed by a sudden drop: This often signals a publisher giving up on the game or moving on to a sequel. The price may not bounce back, but it also may not go lower for a long time.

3. Ignore percentage and look at dollar savings vs. your time

Here's a trap I see constantly. Somebody finds an indie game at 90% off — from $5 to $0.49 — and gets excited because of the percentage. But the actual savings are $4.51. Meanwhile the AAA game next to it is at "only" 60% off, which on a $70 game is $42 of actual savings.

For low-priced games, the percentage doesn't matter much because the absolute number is small either way. If you want the game and it's under $5, just buy it. The dollar difference between "peak deal" and "okay deal" on a $5 game is the price of a coffee. Don't spend a week of mental energy optimizing it.

Save your patience for the $40–$70 games where the difference between buying at the right moment and the wrong moment is real money.

4. Check the deal flag — but read it as a tiebreaker, not a verdict

ATLGames (and similar trackers) tag deals with badges like "NEW LOW", "MATCHED ATL", or "NEAR ATL". These are useful, but they're a shortcut, not the whole picture.

A "NEW LOW" badge tells you the price has never been lower. That's strong evidence to buy if you want the game. It does not tell you whether the game is good, or whether you'll actually play it. I have an embarrassing number of unplayed games in my Steam library bought solely because the badge said it was the best price ever. The badge is not a substitute for actually wanting the thing.

"NEAR ATL" is the more interesting badge in my experience. It usually means the price is within 5–10% of the historical low — which is generally close enough that the extra wait isn't worth it. If you've been wanting the game for a while, a NEAR ATL price is almost always buyable.

5. Watch for the "inflated MSRP" trick

This is the dirtiest pattern in PC game pricing, and it's more common than you'd think. Some publishers will quietly raise a game's regular price during a sale event. The displayed discount percentage stays high (or even goes up), but the actual money you pay is the same as the last sale — or higher.

The only defense is to ignore the percentage entirely and just look at the actual sale price compared to past sale prices. If the current sale price is higher than the last few sale prices for the same game, the "discount" is fake. Move on.

The 30-second checklist

When I'm staring at a deal and trying to decide, this is the actual order of operations in my head:

1. What's the current price?
2. What's the all-time low? How far above it is the current price?
3. How often does this game hit its all-time low? (Once a quarter? Once a year?)
4. If I wait until the next major sale, is the upside (more savings) worth the downside (waiting another 1–3 months and possibly missing this window)?
5. Do I actually want to play this, or am I just collecting?

If steps 2 and 3 line up — current price is at or very near the ATL, and the game doesn't go this low often — and step 5 is a real yes, then buy. Otherwise, wishlist it and wait.

That's it. No spreadsheets, no Discord bots, no waiting for the perfect moment. Just a habit of looking past the sticker and asking the right question: is this actually a good price, or does it just look like one?

Find this useful? The deal listings on ATLGames are built around exactly this framework — every deal shows the historical low and how close the current price is to it. Go browse current deals, or check the full guide for more on Steam sale mechanics.